Can Scotland finally break the New Zealand curse?

Match scene
The All Blacks introduced multiple adjustments to the team that overcame Ireland

International Rugby Series: Scotland v New Zealand

Where: Scottish Gas Murrayfield, the Scottish capital Date: Saturday, 8 November Time: 3:10 PM GMT

Things were simpler then. Match number four of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, January 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to symbolize the historic accomplishment by Scotland.

Having beaten Ireland, Wales and England, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a Test.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he reported breathlessly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Exiting the ground after the match, home supporters would have had hope for the future. Four attempts at beating New Zealand and zero victories, but obvious indications that maybe one was not far off.

A few seasons after, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Half a decade later, history repeated itself. Three years further on, same story. Another five-year gap and, yes, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty All Black wins. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - locations have varied but not the outcomes.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this is another level. Over a century of matches. One of sport's greatest hoodoos.

Team News

In recent years the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to eight points, five points and eight points in recent encounters, but the All Blacks always find a way.

Via their excellence, their power, game management, they secure victory.

We're now at the point of the week where the optimism that some may have held for Scottish success is likely diminishing. Hope is colliding with history.

Key Absences

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. For Scotland's hopes it was like a kick in the guts.

The prop has been absent since spring, but he's a freak and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been too worrying.

During modern rugby early in matches, his endurance stands out. No tighthead played nearly as many minutes in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with his club. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. While Rae is capable, his international experience consists of limited game time.

And when Rae is finished, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, there's little to suggest that he's All Black-beating class.

Strategic Decisions

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some puzzling. Steyn's tactical awareness replaces Duhan van der Merwe's more one-dimensional power.

The flanker selection is unconventional, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Match moment
Darcy Graham was a try-scorer in the narrow loss to the All Blacks in 2022

Facing the Irish, the All Blacks secured the opening match of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, despite numerical advantage, but their last-quarter demolition secured victory.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

Statistical Analysis

For all that their blasts at the end, the last 20 minutes is not where New Zealand typically dominates. Across international matches going back three years, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and 60 in the second half.

Strong opening performances, 48 in the second, moderate third quarters and solid finishes. They start aggressively.

What Scotland Needs

During their last meeting, they struck twice in the initial stages. Establishing early dominance, victory seemed assured. Scotland fought back impressively to dominate temporarily.

The lesson here is that, metaphorically, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - and keep it there.

Over the last decade, successful opponents have needed to score in the upper twenties. Scotland have got into the 20s only twice in their past 13 games against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Perfect execution is required for Townsend's team. Absolutely everything. Wasted opportunities then forget it. A yellow card? A high penalty count? A battered scrum? It's over.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. Vocal support. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Russell being Russell. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. We haven't seen an 80 minutes from the Scottish team that would be sufficient against New Zealand. If the capability exists, it's about time it came out; a century is sufficient.

Todd Wilson
Todd Wilson

Tech writer and AI researcher passionate about demystifying complex technologies for a broader audience.